Germany is heading toward a recession, and even recent policy moves by the European Central Bank (ECB) may not be enough to avert it.
Analysts at Nomura have downgraded their outlook for Germany’s economy, projecting a three-quarter-long recession resulting in a 0.4% decline in overall output.
The forecast stems from a convergence of deep-seated structural issues and unfavorable global conditions, which together set the stage for an economic contraction that Germany will likely struggle to avoid.
At the core of Germany’s economic challenges are long-standing structural concerns that have worsened in the face of current economic headwinds.
Germany’s reliance on its manufacturing sector, coupled with its exposure to global trade cycles, has made the economy particularly vulnerable to external disruptions.
This dependency is most apparent in its trade relationships with China, which have seen significant fluctuations as global demand weakens.
The global slowdown, especially in manufacturing and industrial production, has hit Germany harder than most of its Eurozone counterparts, leaving it more susceptible to recession.
Energy prices have also played a critical role in Germany’s current economic struggles. The aftershocks of the sharp rise in energy prices—primarily fueled by geopolitical tensions and disruptions in global supply chains—are still being felt across Germany’s economy.
“The way we think about Germany is that plentiful structural concerns – ranging from the country’s greater exposure to China and the global manufacturing cycle, the energy price ‘sticker shock’ still reverberating through the economy, and poor demographic trends (falling population, a rising dependency ratio) – have lowered the bar for any given cyclical downturn to result in recession”, said analysts at Nomura.
With fewer working-age individuals supporting a growing number of retirees, the economy faces structural constraints on long-term growth.
These demographic issues, combined with Germany’s reliance on manufacturing, have significantly lowered the threshold for any economic downturn to result in a full-blown recession.
The Sentix survey, a key measure of investor sentiment, shows an ongoing deterioration in Germany’s economic outlook, with both current conditions and future expectations dipping well below pre-pandemic levels.
Germany has become a notable weak spot in the Eurozone, with its outlook deteriorating at a faster pace than the broader region.
Official data on industrial production paints a similarly bleak picture. Over the past eighteen months, Germany’s industrial output has sharply declined, and unlike other Eurozone economies, there has been no clear sign of a turnaround.
Nomura also suggests that recent actions by the ECB, while important, will likely come too late to rescue Germany’s economy. The ECB recently cut its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3.50% and raised its core inflation forecasts for the next year.
However, it also revised down its GDP growth projections, underscoring the growing tension between managing inflation and supporting economic growth.
While the ECB’s easing of monetary policy is a necessary step, Nomura analysts argue that the timing of these measures will not alter Germany’s near-term trajectory.
The country’s deeper structural issues—especially its exposure to external trade shocks and demographic challenges—are unlikely to be resolved by monetary policy alone.
Germany’s economic troubles carry broader implications for the Eurozone. As the bloc’s largest economy, a prolonged downturn in Germany could drag down overall Eurozone growth, prompting a more cautious approach from policymakers in other member states.
